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Free AccessOptions Markets Remain Pessimistic Despite Spot Stabilisation
- Following a more tumultuous Wednesday session, GBP/USD is looking more stable, trading back to flat/minor positive territory to erase the ~30 pips losses suffered in Asia trade. Yesterday's price action saw the currency weaken while rate expectations marched higher (mimicking the inverse correlation noted in the wake of Truss' budget) - and despite the modest stabilisation in spot today, there remain underlying signs of fragility as markets continue to price in as much as 100bps of further tightening in 2023.
- Front-end risk reversals underscore the deteriorating outlook for GBP in options space, with 1m RR falling further in favour of puts - touching the lowest level since late March today. In sympathy, DTCC tracked trade has favoured downside protection, with over $2.5 in puts trading for every $1 in calls so far today - as put strikes layered between 1.22 and 1.2355 take particular focus.
- Downtrendline resistance sits just above at 1.2395, ahead of yesterday's highs at 1.2470. A break and close above here is required to steady the current bearish outlook.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.