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Orange FY23 Earnings Preview

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  • Q4 consensus implies Q4 Rev of EUR 11.6bn (+2% YoY), EBITDAal EUR 3.5bn (+1.7% YoY) and eCapEx EUR 2.1bn (-4.4% YoY)
  • FY23 consensus is broadly in line with FY23 targets – EBITDAal is the only guided metric expected to miss but only by a small margin and some expect as much as 0.8% growth.
  • Orange 10yr EUR spreads have widened slightly against a DT equivalent YTD and have widened close to 20bps against the Telia equivalent since early-Nov.

Metric

FY23 Target

FY23 Consensus

FY24 Consensus

EBITDAal

Slight Growth

-0.25%

+3.4%

eCapEx

Sig. Reduction

-7%

-1.1%

Org CF From Telecoms

At least EUR 3.5bn

EUR 3.5bn

EUR 3.7bn

EBITDAal Leverage

~2x in the MT

~2.1x

~2x





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