MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI BRIEF: China Nov Exports Slows, Imports Slide

MNI BRIEF: China Crude Oil Imports Accelerate In November

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Annual Inflation Rises To 4.87% In November

CHINA NOV EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +8.9% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

US NFIB NOV SMALL BUSINESS INDEX 101.7

MNI: GERMAN NOV CPI +2.2 % Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CORE CPI +0.1% M/M, +3% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Orange Q2 Results In Line; Leverage Falls Below Target On Masorange Proceeds

COMMUNICATIONS

Rating: Baa1[P]/BBB+/BBB+ EUR spreads muted

  • Steady set of results with the modest growth in French revenue and EBITDAal a welcome beat for the issuer in the face of growing domestic competition while growth-driver Africa continues to support performance. Scope for an upgrade has increased with leverage falling to below 2x. Note low number of estimates for BBG consensus.
  • Q2 comparable revenue +0.9% YoY (-0.6% vs. BBG consesnsus) with Africa & ME the biggest contributor at +10.3% while revenues in France were +0.3% and Europe was -2.2%.
  • Q2 EBITDAal +2.6% (+0.5% vs. consensus). H1 EBITDAal was +2.5% driven by Africa & ME at +14.7%, Europe +4% and France +0.2%
  • Subscriber numbers and ARPU’s look healthy with convergent customers +1.4% o/w mobile services +10.9% and fixed services -3.3%.
  • Q2 eCapEx +2.2% YoY with H1 FCF (telecom activities) -1.1% YoY. Net debt fell EUR 4bn from FY23 to EUR 23bn on the Masorange proceeds with EBITDAal leverage of 1.9x vs. 2.05x at FY23 vs. the MT target of ~2x.
  • FY guidance confirmed.
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