Our Data Analysis team look at......>

US DATA PREVIEW: Our Data Analysis team look at tomorrow's US PCE numbers,

writing that there is an upside risk to US core PCE price index:

-Markets have a history Of underestimating core PCE Price Index.

-PCE price index Y/Y could reach Fed target. A 2.0% turnout would be the first

time since April 2012.

-Retail Sales suggest spending was strong. The jump in May retail sales was

boosted by underlying strength in the core retail sales categories, which feed

directly into PCE. 

-Savings rate could continue downward trend. The large 0.8% gain in retail sales

suggesting no pull back in spending.

-Energy to bolster PCE. The already released 0.9% gain for May CPI energy

suggests another month/month gain for PCE price index energy goods and services,

albeit weaker than the month prior when CPI energy rose 1.4% and PCE price index

energy rose 1.5%.

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