Our POV (released at 14:19 05/22 BST) noted.....>

FED: Our POV (released at 14:19 05/22 BST) noted that the FOMC's May meeting

minutes could deliver a dovish surprise versus expectations upon release

Wednesday, based on our scenario analysis. MNI`s base case is that the minutes

are relatively neutral in tone. There seems to be little reason for the Fed to

signal that it will hint at a rate path change. MNI PINCH shows the market has

toed the Dot Plot line on guidance for 2 more fully-priced 25bps hikes in 2018,

though is 1 short for end-2019.

- In a dovish scenario, the minutes could note that FOMC `members` supported the

use of `symmetric` to emphasise that an overshoot of inflation would be

tolerated, and could cite tighter financial conditions (incl flattening yield

curve), to justify caution on steepening the hike path.

- In a hawkish scenario, the mins could downplay the `symmetric` shift by noting

that `participants` supported the change & reinforcing dot plot guidance for

another 5 hikes to end-2020. The market appears to lean toward hawkish minutes

based partly on recent options trades targeting the 2019-20 sector of the curve,

so either of our core or dovish scenarios could be positive for US rates.