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Outlook and Recap

CANADA
  • With only a 5Y GoC auction for local events, US CPI at 0830ET is likely the main driver of Canadian assets.
  • Recap: Speaking yesterday to a business audience, BoC’s Macklem focused on the need for greater business investment to enhance productivity growth. The near-term mon pol outlook was similar to recent comments with the rising rate path seen necessary suggesting multiple increases (the need for ultra-low rates has passed), but the BOC is not on auto-pilot.
  • Further out, rates could go above neutral (modelled at 2.25% with a 1pp range centred on it) for a time, but equally new headwinds could mean “maybe we don’t get all the way back to the neutral rate”, whilst emphasizing the uncertainty around estimates.
  • Continued disruption on the Ambassador Bridge (which carries 25% of Canada-US trade), with Ford and Toyota halting some production as a result.
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