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OUTLOOK: CPI

CANADA
  • Data: CPI inflation for Dec (0830ET) is the main event today. It could help the market lean more heavily towards BoC liftoff next week or waiting until March, with the caveat that the print is unlikely to fully reflect Omicron disruption.
  • Consensus has headline up 0.1pps to 4.8% Y/Y, in a close call with one more analyst now seeing 4.9% Y/Y than 4.8% (mean 4.84% Y/Y). Most expect the non-seasonally adjusted rate at -0.1% M/M or 0.0% M/M.
  • A more in-depth preview with some sell-side estimates can be found here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/documents/13517/CanadaCPIPrevJan2022.pdf
  • Of less importance: Teranet/National Bank house prices for Dec (also 0830ET) plus the weekly US DOE inventories (1100ET) with usual potential implications for oil.

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