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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessOutperforming Bunds, underperforming USTs
- 10-year gilts have outperformed Bunds but underperformed USTs today, while 2-year gilt yields have moved higher ahead of tomorrow's BOE meeting (but by less so than 2-year UST yields have moved ahead of the Fed).
- The SONIA curve has moved less than either the Eurodollar or Euribor curves this morning, with little in the way of domestic UK news.
- Markets continue to price in around 30bp for tomorrow's meeting (so 25bp fully priced with around a 20% probability of 50bp). There continues to bejust under 100bp priced by August (3 meetings) and 150bp by November (5 meetings) with just under 175bp priced by February 2023 (7 meetings).
- We still think that the risks are skewed to a more dovish BOE tomorrow, and note that if the "coming months" time contingency is removed from the forward guidance, the market would view this dovishly.
- Levels ahead of the ISM (the major US data release of the day):
- 2y yields down -5.2bp today at 1.351%
- 5y yields down -3.8bp today at 1.419%
- 10y yields down -3.1bp today at 1.676%
- 30y yields down -1.8bp today at 1.903%
- 2s10s up 2.0bp today at 32.4bp
- 10s30s up 1.3bp today at 22.7bp
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.