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Outside Chance Of 75bp ECB Hike Today; Peak Seen 2.83% Mid-2023

STIR

Going into the ECB decision (1315UK, 0815ET), futures continue to imply roughly 16% chance of a 75bp as opposed to 50bp hike, with a cumulative 95bp priced through the Feb '23 meeting.

  • Peak rates are currently priced at 2.83% in Jun-Jul '23.

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