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Overall in line with expectations

RIKSBANK
  • The repo rate forecast is at zero throughout the forecast horizon.
  • The CPIF forecast ticks above 2.00% for the first time, but only in June 2024 (the last month of projections). It now takes until May 2024 to get to 2.00% (previously it was reached in March 2024 at the end of the previous forecast horizon).
  • Nevertheless, CPIF moving even marginally above target is the first real sign of optimism and a return to normality. This is the first step to having a tick up in the repo rate forecast at the end of the forecast horizon.
  • QE for Q3 set at SEK75bln (the expectations we had seen had generally been between SEK72-80bln so this is in the middle of the range).
  • Language is still cautious even though the Riksbank point to some optimism. They make it clear easy monetary policy is needed for a sustained period of time still.
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