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Overnight Risk-Off Impulse Hits Rupiah

IDR

Spot USD/IDR extends its rally to fresh cycle highs, touching levels not seen since Oct 16, 2020. With the rate trading +45 figs at IDR14,733 at typing, bulls look for a breach of Oct 14, 2020 high of IDR14,753 before taking aim at Sep 25, 2020/Sep 11, 2020 highs of IDR14,919/14,950. Bears would be pleased by a pullback towards May 11 low of IDR14,525.

  • USD/IDR 1-month NDF last +18 figs at IDR14,754, with bulls looking to a test of May 16 cycle high of IDR14,772. Bears keep an eye on May 11 low of IDR14,516.
  • Indonesia's oil palm smallholders are planning to repeat street protests against the ban on exports of the commodity. The nation's trade surplus topped forecasts in April, but data for this month should reveal the full impact of restrictions on shipments.
  • Just to flag in advance, Bank Indonesia will deliver its monetary policy decision next Tuesday, although most analysts expect no change to the 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate this time.

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