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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
Volatility in pandemic-related categories subsided significantly in the second half of 2023, reducing their importance in forecasting the month-to-month readings. The 6-month average standard deviations of M/M % changes are at multiyear lows for new car prices (which have risen between 0.0-0.1% for the past 4 months), car/truck rental, and almost so for used vehicles.
- Some travel categories stand out: volatility remains elevated for airfares after summer gyrations, however, while lodging price volatility has picked up in recent months.
- In December, airfares rose by a 4-month high 1.0% M/M (vs -0.4% prior), lodging by a 3-month high 0.4% (-0.9% prior), and vehicle rental deflated less (-0.7%, -2.2% prior) while new cars (0.0%, 0.0% prior) and used car prices (0.5%, 1.6% prior) were flat/lower.
- As it stands, pandemic category price levels are settling both higher and lower vs overall core prices, which are up 17% since Feb-20: Airfares are 6% below pre-pandemic levels, with lodging prices also undershooting overall core CPI; new cars and vehicle rental prices are now only slightly above the development in core CPI.
- Used cars stand out at 38% above pre-pandemic levels and gaining again in recent months, but forward-looking wholesale price measures suggest that softening is likely in the pipeline.
Source: BLS, MNI Calculations
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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