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Pantheon: Still Hawkish, But A Dovish Tone Likely Will Emerge Next Month

CHILE
  • Despite Tuesday’s unanimous vote and hawkish guidance, Pantheon think policymakers will turn more dovish soon, because credit conditions remain tight, capex is falling, unemployment is increasing rapidly, and confidence is low.
  • That said, their call for the first rate cut in June is looking less likely, because private consumption has been more resilient than the BCCh has expected and core inflation recently has surprised to the upside.
  • Still, they are sticking to their forecast for now, as Pantheon expect inflation to fall rapidly over the next few months. Moreover, the economy is already struggling — the economic activity index has fallen recently and is now just hovering around its pre-pandemic trend — and that risks to growth are now massively tilted to the downside.
  • Overall, Patheon’s core view is unchanged. Their base case is that interest rates will end the year at around 7%, before falling to about 5% in 2024.
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