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Paring Gains Pre-Powell, 3Y Supply Later

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have pared some of yesterday’s further gains in relatively light trade with Chair Powell eyed at 0900ET, although increased data dependency potentially sees this somewhat in CPI’s shadow on Thursday.
  • 2YY +2.9bps at 4.237%, 5YY +2.1bps at 3.694%, 10YY +2.6bps at 3.558% and 30YY +1.2bps at 3.672%, mostly remaining in the lower end of yesterday’s ranges and with 2YY down more than 25bps from just before payrolls on Friday.
  • TYH3 trades 9 ticks lower at 114-11 as it pulls back from yesterday’s high of 114-23+ on subdued volumes. The latter sets initial resistance where a renewed push higher as part of the bullish extension could open 115-08+ (2.0% 10-dma envelope). To the downside sits 113-11 (50-day EMA).
  • Fedspeak: Powell speaks at a Riksbank panel on central bank independence (0900ET).
  • Data: NFIB small business sentiment edged back close to cycle lows along with an encouraging 10pt decline in pricing plans almost back to pre-pandemic averages. Ahead, wholesale trade sales for Nov and final Nov for inventories (1000ET).
  • Bond issuance: US Tsy $40B 3Y Note auction (1300ET)
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