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Paring Latest Sell-Off, Holding Deceptive Increase In Inflation Breakeven

US TSYS
  • There has been continued two-way trade in Tsys, with overnight losses pared into the US session before another step lower which has also ben pared somewhat.
  • In the process it’s seen fresh cycle highs including the 2Y at 5.2571% before rallying nearly 2bp.
  • Fed rate cut expectations continue to be reduced, currently down to 63bps from a terminal effective rate of 5.47% in January to end-2024.
  • 2s10s at -28bps are off earlier session highs of -26.3bps but still +3bps on the day.
  • 10YY currently +4bps at 4.956% having neared 5% with an earlier high 4.9813%. It’s again led by real yields (+3.5ps) but with another increase in breakevens (+0.7bp) that is starting to add up now at 2.445% at the high end of ranges seen over the past year.

10Y breakeven (white) and real yields (yellow)Source: Bloomberg

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