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Partial labour market data due at 7:00BST

  • At 7:00BST we will receive wage data, PAYE data and vacancies data from the labour market survey (with the headline unemployment print delayed until next week).
  • In our view, MPC speakers (particularly Huw Pill) have recently been trying to reduce the market impact to individual data releases by pointing to a greater array of data as being of importance for monetary policy and noting that the short-term focus of monetary policy will hopefully be coming to an end as inflation starts to fall back and the labour market becomes less tight.
  • The Bank of England had previously emphasised the importance of private sector regular pay (i.e. ex-bonuses). However, the September MPC report started to point towards other wage measures and other measures of labour tightness.
  • The ONS delaying other key parts of the labour market report will not help with confidence in the data and while we will continue to watch these data we note that they will be of much lesser importance than in recent months.
  • Hence the market reaction to these data, absent a large spike, should also be more moderate than in recent months.
For the full UK Data Preview document covering both labour market and inflation data including summaries of sellside forecasts see the PDF here.

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