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UK: Week Ahead

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Partial labour market data due at 7:00GMT

UK DATA
  • Partial labour market data will be released by the ONS at 7:00GMT. The ONS has confirmed that the release will be in the same format as last month with the employment figures "produced on the same basis as those in October and November."
  • The highlight of the labour market release is likely to be private sector regular earnings data, which is expected to tick down a little (although there is no Bloomberg consensus for this). The whole economy (i.e. including public sector) regular earnings data is expected by the Bloomberg consensus to fall from 7.7%Y/Y in the 3-months to September to 7.4%Y/Y in the 3-months to October.
  • Although not market moving immediately, we will also be looking at the vacancies data (with the V/U ratio one of the BOE's preferred measures of labour market tightness). HMRC payrolls data will also be released - but that series is quite volatile and prone to revision so often its hard to draw immediate conclusions from it.
  • Note, that the MPC will have had advance sight of this data at 10:00GMT yesterday (alongside the activity data that is due to be published tomorrow morning at 7:00GMT).
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