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Partial Reversal In Breakevens But Still Trending Higher

US TSYS
  • Today’s 7.5bp rally in 10Y Tsy yields, unwinding most of yesterday’s sell-off through the US session, has come from a combination of both lower real yields and inflation breakeven.
  • The 4.5bps decline in the 10Y breakeven to 2.74% (yellow line) takes the edge off the recent rise but does little to change the trend: inflation expectations have been rising over the past two weeks, further above the 2.4-2.5% prior to the Ukraine war but still below the highs of 2.90% averaged through mid-Mar-early May.
  • Broadly similar story in the 5Y5Y forward breakeven at 2.41% (pink line) although it remains closer to the 2.45% averaged over that same mid-Mar to early May period.

US 10Y Tsy yield (white), real yield (green), breakeven (yellow) and 5Y5Y breakeven (pink)Source: Bloomberg

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