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CANADA DATA: Participation Assumptions Key Behind U/E Rate Estimate Differences

CANADA DATA
CanadaData BulletBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsNorth America
  • Bloomberg consensus sees Canadian jobs growth of 25k in November after 14.5k in October, whilst the below Canadian bank analysts see a mild skew softer with a median 20k.
  • There’s broad agreement with the unemployment rate ticking up to 6.6% although Scotia stand out with their 6.4% call. It highlights just how much participation rate changes can have an impact on perceptions on broader labour market balance.
  • The below table shows comments from analysts at the higher, middle and lower end of the spectrum in estimates for jobs growth: 
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  • Bloomberg consensus sees Canadian jobs growth of 25k in November after 14.5k in October, whilst the below Canadian bank analysts see a mild skew softer with a median 20k.
  • There’s broad agreement with the unemployment rate ticking up to 6.6% although Scotia stand out with their 6.4% call. It highlights just how much participation rate changes can have an impact on perceptions on broader labour market balance.
  • The below table shows comments from analysts at the higher, middle and lower end of the spectrum in estimates for jobs growth: