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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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One of the key aspects of the tight labor market and upside wage pressure in the pandemic recovery has been participation, and the November employment report brought more bad news on that front.
- The participation rate ticked down for the 3rd consecutive month, to 62.1% (down 0.1pp from Oct). And prime-age participation - the % of 24-to-54-year olds in the workforce - also dipped by 0.1pp, to 82.4% (like overall participation, having peaked in this cycle in August 2022 - see chart).
- The Household Survey saw 186k people leaving the labor force, the weakest month since June. (With 138k fewer employed, though, that meant the unemployment rate actually declined 0.03pp).
- A recovery in the participation rate doesn't seem to be a great hope of the FOMC's at this stage (Powell this week: "I don't think it's reasonable to expect that we get all the way back to where we were with labor force participation in 2020, 63.7% population adjusted... I don't see that, but I wouldn't rule it out.")
- But unless the decline in participation stabilises, there will continue be doubts over the ability for labor supply to mitigate the need for the Fed to continue dampening demand via tighter policy.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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