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Parts Of SEA Still Outperforming The NEA Bloc

ASIA FX

The USD has either made gains today against individual currencies or pairs are away from lows from a USD/Asia standpoint. Risk appetite has waned as the session progressed. There has against been some outperformance in terms of South East Asia currencies, relative to the North East Asia Bloc. Less exposure to global banking issues and US yields unable to gain upside traction today, have been likely positives for the SEA bloc. Still to come today is Taiwan export orders, while tomorrow delivers South Korean first 20-days trade data for South Korea and Feb PPI.

  • USD/CNH was supported sub 6.8800 in early trade. The pair is now back above 6.9000. We are around 0.25% weaker for the session so far in CNH terms. As expected, the 1yr and 5yr MLF rates were held steady. Onshore equities have outperformed but this has not driven CNH outperformance. Some lingering weakness, from a currency standpoint, may be evident from Friday's RRR cut.
  • 1 month USD/KRW couldn't sustain early levels sub 1300. The pair is now back to 1309/10, as equity market weakness has weighed on broader sentiment. Offshore investors have sold 188mn of local shares today. Spot USD/TWD hasn't seen much downside either, last around 30.57/58, the 200-day MA sits nearby at 30.60.
  • USD/SGD has enjoyed slightly more downside, the pair back under 1.3420. The SGD NEER (per Goldman Sachs estimates) is little changed today, the measure remains a touch below the top of the recent range. We now sit ~0.8% below the top of the band. Feb CPI highlights the week, CPI crosses on Thursday. Outside of global banking issues, the print is a key input into next month's MAS meeting, with both the headline and core numbers expected to print above the MAS inflation targets.
  • THB remained an outperformer, USD/THB got to 34.00, but now sits slightly higher, last around 34.15. Thai equities are holding relatively flat, which is an outperformance theme. USD/PHP spot is also a touch lower, last around 54.65.
  • INR and IDR are seeing less outperformance, albeit at the margins. USD/IDR spot is a little higher, last near 15380, +0.20% for the session so far. USD/INR is relatively steady near 82.50.
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