Party Splits Complicate Election Outlook Further

In the last two days the outlook for the already- complex Israeli election on 23 March has been complicated further by the splitting of two political parties, the centrist Yesh Atid-Telem and the right-wing Zionist Yamina.

• Telem split off from Yesh Atid, and at present it is unclear whether the former will cross the electoral threshold. Both parties were part of the centrist Blue and White coalition that sought to unseat PM Benjamin Netanyahu in the 2020 election.
• A new party, the Religious Zionist Party, split from the right-wing Zionist Yamina Party of former defence and economy minister Naftali Bennett, with its leader Bezalel Smotrich saying Bennett was too focused on the economy, and that he wanted his party to present a true right-wing voice in the Knesset. At present the Religious Zionist Party sits on the threshold of parliamentary representation.
• Opinion poll (seat distribution): Likud 27 (-9), Yesh Atid 13 (-2), Joint List 10 (-5), Blue & White 4 (-9), Shas 8 (-1), UTJ 7 (=), Yisrael Beiteinu 7 (=), Yamina 14 (+11), Meretz 4 (+1), New Hope 17 (+15), Religious Zionist 4 (+2), Israelis 5 (+5). PanelPolitics, 11 Jan (chngs. w/ Current seats), 505 respondents.
• Based on the above poll, Netanyahu would find it extremely difficult to form a governing coalition, raising the prospect of a centrist/right wing coalition that excluded PM's Likud from power.