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Path Of Least Resistance Up

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS

Today' gains in EURUSD signal a potential resumption of the recent uptrend and technical trend factors suggest the path of least resistance remains up. We note that:

  • The pair remains above a trendline support drawn off the Sep 28 low. The trendline intersects 1.1723 today and is rising by 6-pips per day.
  • Moving average studies remain in a bull mode. The focus is on the relationship between the 20- and 50-day EMAs.
  • Our intraday trend direction model currently displays a bullish reading and this has been reinforced by today's recovery off the intraday low.
  • Key levels to watch:
    • SUP 1: 1.1775/42 The 20- and 50-day EMA zone
    • SUP 2: 1.1723 Trendline support drawn off the Sep 28 low
    • RES 1: 1.1881 High Oct 21 and the near-term bull trigger
    • RES 2: 1.1917 Sep 10 high / 76.4% of the Sep 1 - 25 sell-off
  • A break of the trendline support would alter the picture
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