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Pay data sticky in finance, business and manufacturing

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  • Digging into the wage numbers, there were some small upward revisions to the March single month wage numbers (periods before that only saw minimal changes) which was the single month for March revised up to 5.94%Y/Y from 5.88%Y/Y. The single month for April was 5.73%Y/Y and there has actually been a deceleration in the Y/Y growth rate across all the subsectors (including "wholesaling, retailing, hotels & restaurants" - with no large increase in this category M/M either). The stickiest sectors actually appear to be "finance and business" and "manufacturing" which saw decent increases. This doesn't appear to be a big NLW-driven increase - but these sectors would have been expected to fall back a little more in our view.
  • This means the 3m/3m is now at 5.83%Y/Y in the 3-months to April, down marginally from 5.88%Y/Y in the 3-months to March (which was revised from the intial 5.85%Y/Y).
  • Momentum picked up again looking at a 3m/3m measure, but that was expected.
  • There was a minor fall in the V/U ratio from 60.1% to 60.0%.
  • There was a notable increase in the claimant count, which isn't something we often pay much attention to as it can be quite volatile. However, there are some odd seasonals that can sometimes occur around the April/May data and the increase this month appears at least in part to have been a little exaggerated by seasonal adjustment factors.

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  • Digging into the wage numbers, there were some small upward revisions to the March single month wage numbers (periods before that only saw minimal changes) which was the single month for March revised up to 5.94%Y/Y from 5.88%Y/Y. The single month for April was 5.73%Y/Y and there has actually been a deceleration in the Y/Y growth rate across all the subsectors (including "wholesaling, retailing, hotels & restaurants" - with no large increase in this category M/M either). The stickiest sectors actually appear to be "finance and business" and "manufacturing" which saw decent increases. This doesn't appear to be a big NLW-driven increase - but these sectors would have been expected to fall back a little more in our view.
  • This means the 3m/3m is now at 5.83%Y/Y in the 3-months to April, down marginally from 5.88%Y/Y in the 3-months to March (which was revised from the intial 5.85%Y/Y).
  • Momentum picked up again looking at a 3m/3m measure, but that was expected.
  • There was a minor fall in the V/U ratio from 60.1% to 60.0%.
  • There was a notable increase in the claimant count, which isn't something we often pay much attention to as it can be quite volatile. However, there are some odd seasonals that can sometimes occur around the April/May data and the increase this month appears at least in part to have been a little exaggerated by seasonal adjustment factors.