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Payrolls Saw JPM Push Back First Cut Call From June To July

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

  • JPMorgan wrote after Friday's payrolls report that “Job growth surged again in March, with nonfarm employment increasing by 303k,000. Unlike prior months, that message of strength wasn’t sullied by large downward revisions or a disappointing household survey.”
  • “The easing in wage inflation alongside solid job growth is a testament to the to the supply-side improvement in the labor market.”
  • “While the favorable supply-side developments are consistent with Powell’s benign view of the outlook, the apparent absence of any cracks developing on the demand side should lessen the urgency to ease policy, and we are pushing back our call for the first Fed cut from June to July but are still looking for cuts at subsequent SEP meetings thereafter.”
  • “Perhaps the most disappointing statistic in the household survey was the survey response rate, which slid to 67.2%, the lowest ever except for one month in the peak of the pandemic.”
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