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Peak Fed Pricing Ticks Higher On Overseas Data, Still Well Off Highs

STIR

Boosted in part by above-expected overseas data (German IFO, Australian CPI) implied Fed peak pricing has ticked higher in overnight trade Wednesday, with the 10-11bp cumulative tightening implied through the Jan 2024 FOMC up from 9-10bp at Tuesday's close.

  • That still sits 1bp below Tuesday's post-PMIs peak pricing, but up 3-4bp on the week.
  • Implied rate cuts have been fairly steady with around 78bp in reductions seen between peak and the Dec 2024 FOMC, vs 77bp seen at Tuesday's close - the slight movement largely due to the aforementioned peak repricing.
  • Immediate attention is on MBA mortgage apps, with Sept new home sales data out later. Fed Chair Powell's appearance after the market close is expected to steer away from market-moving comments as it's in the pre-FOMC meeting blackout period.

Source: BBG, MNI

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