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Pension Reform Bill To Face Tougher Resistance In Senate

CHILE
  • The Chilean peso has benefitted from the resumption of USD sales by the Finance Ministry over the last week, outperforming regional FX over the period. Yesterday, Hacienda slowed the pace of daily dollar sales to a still significant USD 150mn, from an unsustainable USD 300mn over previous days. With CLP depreciation pressures having eased for now, the central bank looks to have more room to step up the pace of easing next week. Analyst expectations have shifted as such, with a number now expecting a 100bp cut from BCCh on Wednesday.
  • Many analysts expect further peso weakness ahead, however, and USDCLP maintains a bullish tone. The latest move lower is - for now - considered corrective. The recent piercing of 924.67 signals scope for 955.00, the Oct 16 high. Initial support lies at 895.07, the 50-day EMA.
  • The lower house of Congress approved the base text of President Boric’s pension reform yesterday, with 84 votes in favour and 64 against. However, a key clause on a 6% levy on wages was rejected. The bill now passes to the Senate, where it is likely to face tougher resistance in from right-wing policymakers and will likely depend on support from smaller, swing opposition parties for approval. This vote may not occur until March, however, given the upcoming legislative recess in Chile.
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