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Pernod Ricard (Baa1, BBB+, BBB+; S) {RI FP Equity} 3Q Results

CONSUMER CYCLICALS
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Weak Q3, with US and Europe dragging, China recovery not there in domestic numbers but travel retail did recovery strongly. Pernod has been pushing recovery down the road (see 1H results) and is doing the same again pointing to a Q4 recovery to drag up organic -2% YTD sales to flat levels. Well guided capex bump, a now interim dividend bump and €300m ongoing buyback is on track to take out most of FCF this year.

  • Organic sales over Q3 were flat (c+2.8%) at €2.35b (c€2.48b). Gross/reported was -2%.
  • Heavy fall in US (-7% vs. c-4%) & Europe (-6% vs. c-3%) while Asia & Rest of World came in at +8% vs. c+9.2%. China fell -12% in Q3 (-9% YTD) on "challenging macro environment", though it did report a +38% in travel retail on Chinese travellers. Strength in India & double digit growth in Japan.
  • Guidance is largely unch; "broadly stable" organic net sales, EBIT margins expanding driving growth of +1%, Capex unch at €800m & FCF left broad at 'reflecting lower EBIT & increase capex'. Reaffirms medium term target of +4-7% sales growth.
  • Equity payouts this year include €300m buyback & interim dividend looks sizeable and above consensus (c€2.06/share) at €2.35/share (~€600m) - might be compensating for buyback cuts earlier this year. Final tends to be €2.5/share+/~€650m, and if so will take out most of current FCF (c€1.35b).

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Weak Q3, with US and Europe dragging, China recovery not there in domestic numbers but travel retail did recovery strongly. Pernod has been pushing recovery down the road (see 1H results) and is doing the same again pointing to a Q4 recovery to drag up organic -2% YTD sales to flat levels. Well guided capex bump, a now interim dividend bump and €300m ongoing buyback is on track to take out most of FCF this year.

  • Organic sales over Q3 were flat (c+2.8%) at €2.35b (c€2.48b). Gross/reported was -2%.
  • Heavy fall in US (-7% vs. c-4%) & Europe (-6% vs. c-3%) while Asia & Rest of World came in at +8% vs. c+9.2%. China fell -12% in Q3 (-9% YTD) on "challenging macro environment", though it did report a +38% in travel retail on Chinese travellers. Strength in India & double digit growth in Japan.
  • Guidance is largely unch; "broadly stable" organic net sales, EBIT margins expanding driving growth of +1%, Capex unch at €800m & FCF left broad at 'reflecting lower EBIT & increase capex'. Reaffirms medium term target of +4-7% sales growth.
  • Equity payouts this year include €300m buyback & interim dividend looks sizeable and above consensus (c€2.06/share) at €2.35/share (~€600m) - might be compensating for buyback cuts earlier this year. Final tends to be €2.5/share+/~€650m, and if so will take out most of current FCF (c€1.35b).

Keep reading...Show less