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Persistent USD Strength Leads To An Uptick in Long Dollar Specs

FOREX
  • Net long specs on the US Dollar continued to rise in the week ended May 3, increasing by 69.1K to a total of 149.2K contracts.
  • Momentum on the dollar has been mainly driven by the renewed geopolitical tensions and the ‘hawkish’ Fed tone.
  • Last week, the Fed raised its policy rate by 50bps (as expected), delivering the biggest rate-hike since 2000, and also announced that it will start QT on June 1.
  • Even though the FOMC meeting was considered ‘dovish’ by market participants (75bps hike off the table for now), support for the US Dollar may remain strong in the near term amid market uncertainty and rising geopolitical risk.
  • We have seen recently that the ‘Long USD Trade’ remains moderately crowded despite the DXY index breaking above the Covid highs.
  • DXY index has been testing the psychological level 104 in the past week; a break above that level would open the door for a move up to 107.31 (December 2012 highs).

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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