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Personal Spending, Pending Home Sales Higher Than Expected

US TSYS

Tsys looking weaker after the bell, but off late session lows, Mar'24 10Y futures currently -7 at 111-03 vs. 111-00 low, yield at 4.0523% (+.0540). Curves bear flattened on the day: 2s10s -3.150 at -21.048 vs. -17.415 high.

  • Busy session to end the week with Tsys extending lows after PCE and Personal Spending data:
    • PCE Deflator MoM (0.2% vs. 0.2% est, -0.1% prior), YoY (2.6% vs. 2.6% est)
    • PCE Core Deflator MoM (0.2% vs. 0.2% est), YoY (2.9% vs. 3.0% est).
    • Personal Spending higher than expected w/ up-revisions to prior: 0.7% vs. 0.5% est, prior upped to 0.4% from 0.2%; Real Personal Spending: 0.5% vs. 0.3% est.
  • Tsys extended lows yet again after higher than expected Pending Home Sales MoM a whopping 8.3% increase vs. 2.0% est (prior down-revised to -0.3% from 0.0%), YoY: -1.0% vs -4.3% est, while prior down revised to -5.5% from -5.1%.
  • Looking ahead: focus is on the FOMC policy annc on Wednesday, followed by employment data for January on Friday. Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding process for the Feb-Apr quarter also begins with borrowing estimates released on Mon Jan 29 (0830ET), followed by the refunding announcement itself on Wed Jan 31 (also 0830ET).
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