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PERU: BBVA Say PEN Remains Resilient Outlier in LatAm

PERU
BulletPeruEM BulletEmerging Market News
  • BBVA have noted the PEN, together with the JPY and ILS, is the only extended major currency that has managed to appreciate following the election of Donald Trump.
  • On the local front, Peru’s November headline inflation ticked up to 2.3% from 2.00% in October, but importantly, core CPI made a smaller jump, from 2.3% in October to 2.4% in November. As noted in BBVA’s previous report and by the BCRP in its statement, the base effects in November were unfavourable, but this should reverse starting from December.
  • BBVA entered a preference for long PERUGB 2039s at 7.02% with a target of 6.50% and stop-loss of 7.25% (unhedged), and more generally BBVA remain short USDPEN from 3.81, targeting 3.68.
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  • BBVA have noted the PEN, together with the JPY and ILS, is the only extended major currency that has managed to appreciate following the election of Donald Trump.
  • On the local front, Peru’s November headline inflation ticked up to 2.3% from 2.00% in October, but importantly, core CPI made a smaller jump, from 2.3% in October to 2.4% in November. As noted in BBVA’s previous report and by the BCRP in its statement, the base effects in November were unfavourable, but this should reverse starting from December.
  • BBVA entered a preference for long PERUGB 2039s at 7.02% with a target of 6.50% and stop-loss of 7.25% (unhedged), and more generally BBVA remain short USDPEN from 3.81, targeting 3.68.