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Peru Central Bank Preview - Analyst Views

PERU

Currently 7/8 surveyed analysts see rates unchanged with one calling for a 25bps hike.

  • Barclays: Amid high political uncertainty, GDP could fail to return to pre-pandemic levels this year. Nonetheless, the persistence of capital outflows could force the BCRP to make a first hike in Q4.
  • Goldman Sachs: Expect the MPC to keep the policy rate at 0.25% and possibly a slight hawkish twist to the forward guidance to acknowledge the deterioration of the current and prospective inflation outlook and entertain an earlier than expected lift-off.
  • Morgan Stanley: The recent upturn in headline inflation, driven by food and fuels is seen as transitory by the board. The central bank should stay on hold as GDP remains below pre-COVID-19 levels and inflation dynamics, particularly in core, remain well behaved.
  • Patheon: Forecast a 25bps hike according to Bloomberg. Economic activity will gather speed, thanks to supportive external conditions, and an acceleration in capex, assuming market-friendly policies, from the new government. But inflation pressures are rising, and the BCRP likely will have to hike rates soon.
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