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Peru Central Bank Preview – December 09, 2300GMT/1800ET

PERU
  • Analysts are unanimous in expecting another 50bp hike later today, bringing the reference rate to 2.50%. Resilient inflationary pressure and accelerating inflation expectations support tighter monetary conditions.
  • Despite annual inflation falling to 5.66% in November from 5.83% the month prior, the monthly reading still rose 0.36% ahead of expectations for a 0.30% increase. Core inflation also increased to 2.91% from 2.78%. Results remain well above the 2.0% +/- 1 percentage point target.
  • Furthermore, there is clear evidence of a further contamination of medium-term inflation expectations within the November central bank’s survey. Economists’ now expect year end-2021 CPI at 5.75% and for end 2022, expectations increased by 40bp, to 3.55%.
  • Additionally, renewed pressure on the currency (USDPEN +1.5% from the November meeting) amid heightened political uncertainty, raise concerns about financial stability and support increasing rates.
  • Some analysts have questioned whether the newly formed BCRP board may decelerate the tightening pace to 25bps, however with the nominal interest rate below its neutral level, and real rates still deep in negative territory, consensus seems to fall toward another 50bp increase.
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