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PERU: Gold Driving Export Rebound, BCRP Expected To Cut This Week

PERU
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  • Exports rose by 13.8% to $46.799bn during the first eight months of the year, according to Andina, $5.681bn more than in the same period in 2023. In August alone, exports rose by 26.4% y/y to $6.718bn. Mining exports were up by 14.5% over the Jan-Aug period, driven by a 56% increase in gold exports, while copper exports edged up by 1.6%.
  • No other macro data are expected this week, with focus turning to the BCRP monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Following the much softer-than-expected CPI inflation data for September, the central bank is widely expected to continue with its gradual easing cycle, cutting by another 25bp to 5.0% this week.
  • BBVA notes that the central bank had been delaying the cuts earlier this year as core prices remained somewhat stubborn and in order to back the currency, but at this point the easing could be more straightforward. On the currency, they note that the PEN has been suffering somewhat given the gyrations in commodities and as a result of more expensive oil imports, but USDPEN still tested the bottom of the recent channel last week at 3.70, and they now see the 3.75 range midpoint as the first resistance.
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  • Exports rose by 13.8% to $46.799bn during the first eight months of the year, according to Andina, $5.681bn more than in the same period in 2023. In August alone, exports rose by 26.4% y/y to $6.718bn. Mining exports were up by 14.5% over the Jan-Aug period, driven by a 56% increase in gold exports, while copper exports edged up by 1.6%.
  • No other macro data are expected this week, with focus turning to the BCRP monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Following the much softer-than-expected CPI inflation data for September, the central bank is widely expected to continue with its gradual easing cycle, cutting by another 25bp to 5.0% this week.
  • BBVA notes that the central bank had been delaying the cuts earlier this year as core prices remained somewhat stubborn and in order to back the currency, but at this point the easing could be more straightforward. On the currency, they note that the PEN has been suffering somewhat given the gyrations in commodities and as a result of more expensive oil imports, but USDPEN still tested the bottom of the recent channel last week at 3.70, and they now see the 3.75 range midpoint as the first resistance.