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PERU: Goldman Sachs Expects Further 25bp Rate Cut This Week

PERU
  • In Goldman Sachs’ view, the BCRP maintains a cautious wait-and-see approach in search of favourable entry points to accommodate further cuts given the still-elevated level of policy restraint. They believe that recent data are broadly supportive of further normalisation of the policy stance through a moderate 25bp cut on Thursday.
  • The inflation backdrop remains benign, with headline returning to the 2.0% ± 1.0% target band midpoint and core ex-food converging to within the target band with its lowest reading since 2021. Core services also finally broke through the 3.4% floor seen since February. Delivering a frontloaded 25bp cut now also has strategic value as base effects for headline inflation will turn adverse during Sep-Nov.
  • Although Q2 GDP was robust, the economy entered Q3 with negative momentum after disappointing June data. GS notes that the carryover for Q3 is tracking at -1.0% q/q sa. However, recent FX dynamics have been on the softer side and GS says that the probability of a hawkish hold would rise if FX pressures continue to build and the MPC delivers an FX spot market intervention. They highlight that no such intervention has taken place since June.
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PeruEM BulletBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsRegion

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