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PERU: Scotiabank Says Uptick In Inflation May Keep BCRP On Hold Next Month

PERU
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  • Besides the release of November CPI data over the weekend, mining GDP and fishing GDP figures for October will also be published on Sunday, alongside early growth indicators for the month. Scotiabank says that the fishing figures will be of particular interest, given that we are in the middle of the fishing season, which appears to be going very well.
  • The activity data will give an early indication of the strength of Q4 GDP, which Scotia expects to come in at 3.3% y/y. This would be down from 3.8% y/y in Q3 and below Finance Minister Arista’s estimate of 4.0%.
  • Meanwhile, Scotia now sees monthly inflation coming in at 0.2% m/m, which would lift the annual rate to 2.3-2.4% y/y, from 2.0%. They don’t believe this will be much of a concern for the BCRP because the increase in the annual rate would be largely due to a low base. However, it may take the uptick as an opportunity to avoid cutting the policy rate in December, having signalled recently it is nearing the end of its easing cycle. Scotia sees two more cuts to 4.5% in the coming months.
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  • Besides the release of November CPI data over the weekend, mining GDP and fishing GDP figures for October will also be published on Sunday, alongside early growth indicators for the month. Scotiabank says that the fishing figures will be of particular interest, given that we are in the middle of the fishing season, which appears to be going very well.
  • The activity data will give an early indication of the strength of Q4 GDP, which Scotia expects to come in at 3.3% y/y. This would be down from 3.8% y/y in Q3 and below Finance Minister Arista’s estimate of 4.0%.
  • Meanwhile, Scotia now sees monthly inflation coming in at 0.2% m/m, which would lift the annual rate to 2.3-2.4% y/y, from 2.0%. They don’t believe this will be much of a concern for the BCRP because the increase in the annual rate would be largely due to a low base. However, it may take the uptick as an opportunity to avoid cutting the policy rate in December, having signalled recently it is nearing the end of its easing cycle. Scotia sees two more cuts to 4.5% in the coming months.