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PERU: Scotiabank Sees BCRP Staying On Hold In October

PERU
  • Despite the rate cut, Scotiabank says that the policy statement has a more cautious tone by specifying that the BCRP expects inflation to remain within the target range, unlike the August statement, which indicated that inflation would be around the midpoint of the target range. That means that inflation would be above 2%.
  • Scotiabank expects inflation to rise at the beginning of Q4, before moderating to 2.5% at the end of the year. Meanwhile, the statement also indicates that the decision does not mean consecutive cuts, a guidance that has not been present previously.
  • Inflation is under control and economic expectations are good. Considering that the Fed does not meet in October, possible pressures on PEN caused by strong maturities of derivatives placed by the BCRP and the negative spread with the Fed, would lead the BCRP to keep its rate unchanged, in Scotiabank’s view.
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