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PERU: September CPI Inflation Surprises Meaningfully To Downside

PERU
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  • Prime Minister Gustavo Adrianzen said in a post on X earlier that Lima consumer prices fell by 0.24% m/m in September, well below the 0.28% m/m increase the month before and also below the Bloomberg consensus for a 0.08% m/m rise. As a result, annual CPI inflation declined to 1.78% y/y he said, from 2.03% in August, below the 2.09% consensus. The data are still scheduled to be officially published on Bloomberg at 1600BST(1100ET) today.
  • BCRP Governor Velarde previously said that he expected headline inflation to be around 2.00-2.05% y/y in September and that he is confident it will remain within the 1-3% target range this year. At the time, he saw headline inflation ending the year at 2.3%, marginally above the previous 2.2% forecast, while core inflation would ease to 2.5% by year-end.
  • The meaningful downside surprise to September inflation clearly keeps the door open to further gradual rate cuts ahead, with the next BCRP MPC meeting scheduled for October 10.
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  • Prime Minister Gustavo Adrianzen said in a post on X earlier that Lima consumer prices fell by 0.24% m/m in September, well below the 0.28% m/m increase the month before and also below the Bloomberg consensus for a 0.08% m/m rise. As a result, annual CPI inflation declined to 1.78% y/y he said, from 2.03% in August, below the 2.09% consensus. The data are still scheduled to be officially published on Bloomberg at 1600BST(1100ET) today.
  • BCRP Governor Velarde previously said that he expected headline inflation to be around 2.00-2.05% y/y in September and that he is confident it will remain within the 1-3% target range this year. At the time, he saw headline inflation ending the year at 2.3%, marginally above the previous 2.2% forecast, while core inflation would ease to 2.5% by year-end.
  • The meaningful downside surprise to September inflation clearly keeps the door open to further gradual rate cuts ahead, with the next BCRP MPC meeting scheduled for October 10.