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Peso Edges Higher, MXNJPY Eyes 2023 Highs

MEXICO
  • With major equity indices consolidating last week’s sharp recovery, the Mexican peso has been edging higher, re-asserting its resilience. While USDMXN declines have lacked momentum, it is worth noting the near 4% bounce for MXNJPY since last week, which significantly narrows the gap with the 2023 highs at 7.6498.
  • With notable levels in close proximity, MXN price action will be closely monitored this week. USDMXN continues to trade just above key support at 17.8981, the Mar 9 low. The outlook remains bearish and a break of 17.8981 would reinforce bearish conditions. A break would open 17.5746, the Aug 25 2017 low.
  • On the domestic docket this week, we have a multitude of tier-two data releases. These include April manufacturing PMI, remittances, job creation, unemployment rate and consumer confidence data.
  • On Tuesday, the central bank will publish its latest survey of economists before the May 18 central bank meeting/decision where the Banxico committee could signal the end of the tightening cycle.
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