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Peso Extends Recovery Following Further Strong Data

CHILE
  • The firmer-than-expected Imacec data this morning has prompted an extension of CLP strength in early trade on Friday. Surveyed estimates had increased following Thursday’s data, however, annual growth picking up to 2.5% eclipsed the high-end of the forecast range, rising to the fastest pace since June 2022. Mining activity surged 6.1% compared to December, services gained 1% and commerce rose 1.2%.
  • USDCLP has extended its downside momentum, now trading 3% off the highs posted earlier this week. Notably, the pair has now breached below the 20-day EMA, which intersects today at 963.88 and was considered initial firm support for the pair. We noted on Thursday that BBVA would be looking to reengage in CLP shorts below the 950 level, which echo prior comments from Citi who previously said they would be looking to add to longs ~950.
  • Trade data next week will be followed by the important February CPI release, the final inflation reading before the BCCH decision on April 02.
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