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Peso Firms, Implied Vols Fall As Preliminary Election Results Trickle In

MXN

Spot USD/MXN had a look under Friday's post-NFP low as exit polls/early results of Mexican mid-term elections started to trickle in, suggesting that the ruling coalition's grip on parliament will weaken. The rate last changes hands at MXN19.9219, some 370 pips worse off on the day.

  • It seems like Mexico's ruling coalition managed to cling onto its absolute majority in the Chamber of Deputies, despite losing the two-thirds supermajority needed to change the constitution. The following table shows preliminary projections of seat allocation in the lower house, compiled by Mexico's national electoral institute.
Fig. 1: Estimated Results Of Elections To The Mexican Chamber Of Deputies


  • Worth noting that alongside all 500 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, up for grabs were 15 state governorships and a large number of local lawmaker positions.
  • Implied vols eased off across the curve. Overnight tenor ebbed off a two-month high printed in early Asia-Pac trade and last sits +1.92pp at 16.98%.
  • From a technical perspective, a break under trendline support at MXN19.8967 would expose May 18 cycle low of MXN19.7197. Conversely, a jump above Friday's/May 13 highs of MXN20.2132/20.2135 would open up channel top at MXN20.2258.

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