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Peso Rangebound Ahead Of Key US CPI Release

MEXICO
  • The Mexican peso is trading in a tight 17.05-17.10 range against the dollar, ahead of today’s key US CPI inflation release. BBVA believe that a soft US inflation print could cool dollar pressure, while the upside surprise would have to be very significant to reignite dollar demand in their view, given recent performance and some technicals. As such, they see scope for further outperformance by Latam high yielders such as MXN. Initial support for USDMXN is around the 17.00 handle, while key support and the bear trigger, lies at 16.7852, the Jan 8 low.
  • No major data releases in the docket today. Weekly international reserves data will be published at 1500GMT(1000ET) and nominal wages data for January are due for publication at some point this week (prior +9% y/y).
  • In other news, Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim said yesterday that Mexico can improve oil production without restarting competitive oil auctions because the works are already done. State-owned Pemex and private companies can drill for oil in blocks that were won under the previous administration, he said. He also said that Mexico could improve development if private sector annual investment reached 20% of GDP, government investment 5% of GDP and foreign investment 4-5% of GDP.
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