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IP Stronger Than Expected In May, But 3m/3m Trend Still Bleak

ITALY DATA
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Italian May industrial production rose 0.5% M/M SWDA (vs -1.0% prior), above consensus estimates of 0.0%. However, production fell 1.6% on a 3m/3m SWDA basis (vs -1.3% prior), consistent with ongoing weakness in survey data.

  • All major sub-components (bar energy) fell on a 3m/3m basis in May, with capital goods (-3.2%) and consumer goods (-1.4%) driving the fall.
  • The industrial sector continues to drag on Italian activity, though this has been offset by a strong services sector, which has been aided by the solid labour market and improving trend in real wages.

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Italian May industrial production rose 0.5% M/M SWDA (vs -1.0% prior), above consensus estimates of 0.0%. However, production fell 1.6% on a 3m/3m SWDA basis (vs -1.3% prior), consistent with ongoing weakness in survey data.

  • All major sub-components (bar energy) fell on a 3m/3m basis in May, with capital goods (-3.2%) and consumer goods (-1.4%) driving the fall.
  • The industrial sector continues to drag on Italian activity, though this has been offset by a strong services sector, which has been aided by the solid labour market and improving trend in real wages.