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Peso Under Light Pressure, BSP Says Inflation May Have Peaked


Spot USD/PHP trades +0.198 at PHP55.635 as the peso has depreciated in line with regional trend. Should we get above Jul 28 high of PHP55.975, bulls could take aim at record highs at PPH56.500. Bears look for a retreat towards Jul 29 low of PHP55.057 & the 50-DMA at PHP54.641.

  • USD/PHP 1-month NDF last seen +0.010 at PHP55.750. A clearance of Jul 28 high of PHP56.060 would bring the all-time high of PHP56.740 into play. Bears would be pleased by a sell-off past Jul 29 low of PHP55.170 & the 50-DMA at PHP54.781.
  • BSP Gov Medalla suggested that inflation may have peaked in July and there is a "better than 50/50 chance" that it will return into the target range next year (reminder that the next monthly inflation report is due Friday). Medalla reiterated familiar stance on the upcoming monetary policy meeting, noting that it will likely see a 25bp or 50bp rate hike.
  • The benchmark PSEi Index advanced this morning and last sits at 6,389 (+0.41%).

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