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Peso Weakens After BSP Leaves Policy Rate Unchanged

PHP

Spot USD/PHP has crept higher this morning and last changes hands +0.118 at PHP50.360. Gains past Nov 17 high/50-DMA at PHP50.455/50.478 would bring Nov 4 & 5 highs of PHP50.620 into play. Bears look for a pullback under Nov 15 low of PHP49.775.

  • USD/PHP 1-month NDF last seen +0.090 at PHP50.430. Bulls see Nov 17 high of PHP50.540 as their initial target, while bears keep an eye on Nov 12 low of PHP49.820.
  • Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas left their key policy rate unchanged on Thursday, as expected by virtually all analysts, with "latest baseline forecasts broadly unchanged from the previous assessment round." Nonetheless, the statement noted that "the risks to the inflation outlook have shifted towards the upside for 2022 even as they remain broadly balanced for 2023."
  • Echoing this train of thought, Dep Gov Dakila said that there is a risk of faster inflation in 2022 as supply-side factors affect prices. Dakila noted that economic activity could return to pre-pandemic level by 2H2022, while Gov Diokno added that growth appears to be gaining solid traction.
  • The Philippine economic calendar is fairly light over the next week or so.
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