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PHILIP Curve Steepens, CPI Increases Although Below Estimates

PHILIPPINES
  • The PHILIP curve has bear-steepened today, with front-end yields 1bps lower, while the belly of the curve has sold off 1-2bps. The 2Y yield is 1bps lower at 5.185%, the 5Y yield is 1.5bps higher at 5.225%, 10Y is 2bps higher at 5.345%, while the 5Y CDS is 1bps lower to 62.5bps.
  • The Philip to US Treasury spread difference has tighten in the front-end with the 2y now 37bps (-2bps) while out further we continue to drift wider with the 5yr now 75.5bps (+2bps) and the 10yr now 87.5bps (+2bp).
  • Cross-asset moves: The USD/PHP is little changed at 57.223, PSEi Index is down 0.15%, while US Tsys futures are 1-2bps lower.
  • Philippine inflation rose for a third consecutive month in April, reaching 3.8% year-on-year, driven by ongoing food supply strain, particularly rice, although it was slower than economists' expectations. The BSP expects average inflation to continue to hold within target range of 2%-4% for this year and next, despite the temporary acceleration. However, persistent price pressures, exacerbated by potential food supply challenges from La Niña weather patterns, may prompt the BSP keep the key rate at a 17-year high at 6.5%, and delay a pivot to monetary easing.
  • Looking Ahead, Foreign Reserves later today, Trade Balance on Wednesday and GDP on Thursday
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