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Phillip Morris (PM; A2, A-; S) {PM US Equity} 1Q24 Results (delayed from IB)

CONSUMER STAPLES
De-leveraging targets unchanged, slight bump up in FY24 revenue growth & operating income guidance. € lines flat today
  • Beat on cigarette and heated tobacco shipment units driving beat on adj. operating income at $3.5b (c$3.2b).
  • Smoke-free 39% of total sales (FY23 37%). For FY24 guidance its including 2b adverse unit impact from customer adjustments to EU characterising flavour ban - but still sees net >140b units (c142b).
  • FY24 guidance is for 7-8.5% organic growth (c +5%, prev +6.5-8%) and 10-12% operating income growth (c +7%, prev. +8-9.5%).
  • Rest of guidance is unch; international industry (ex. China & US) volume decline for cigarettes and HTU of -2% to flat/ PMI volume shipment growth of flat to +1% driven by smoke-free, operating cash of $10-11b (c$11b), capex of $1.2b & leverage improvement of 0.3x-0.5x - targeting 2x by end of 2026. FY23 reported was 3x. No buybacks this year.
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