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Philly Fed Confirms Downward Trend In Manufacturing Surveys

US DATA
  • The Philly Fed manufacturing index was a little weaker than expected in Oct, only rising from -9.9 to -8.7 (cons -5.0).
  • Less volatile than the Empire survey of late, it supports the trend move lower in the regional Fed surveys which have recently undershot ISM Mfg for a few months now, with the MNI Chicago PMI most recently giving a better indication of the timing of the latest step down in activity (next published Oct 31) – charts below.
  • Prices: "The indicators for prices paid and prices received rose modestly this month following steady declines through the summer."
  • Outlook: "The survey’s future general activity indexes suggest that the surveyed firms expect declines overall over the next six months", although firms also anticipate higher capex next year in the special question.

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