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Philly Fed Mfg Prices Received Jump (Especially Expectations)

US DATA
  • The Philly Fed manufacturing index surprisingly fell to 1.3 (cons 5.0) in June from 4.5, for its lowest level since January.
  • It’s in contrast to Monday’s beat for the volatile Empire survey as it increased to -6.0 (cons -10.0) from -15.6 for its highest since Feb’24.
  • Within the Philly Fed components, shipments slipped from -1.2 to -7.2 (lowest since Dec’23) whilst new orders improved but remained negative, rising from -7.9 to -2.2.
  • Price components offered one of the few hawkish aspects across the broader sweep of 0830ET data. Current period prices paid increased from 18.7 to 22.5 (close to 23.0 in Apr which was highest since Dec’23).
  • More notably from a passthrough angle after months of no sequential change, prices received increased from 6.6 to 13.7 for its highest since Jul’23.
  • There was a particularly notable increase in prices received expectations over the next 6 months, jumping from 31.4 to 58.8 for the highest since Apr’22. This series peaked at 69.9 at the peak of post-pandemic inflationary pressures in Jun'21.

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