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Philly Fed Slide Muddies Latest Manufacturing Trend

US DATA
  • The Philly Fed manufacturing index was weaker than expected in Sept as it fell to -13.5 (cons -1.0) to fully reverse what had been a surprise increase to +12.0 in August.
  • It marks a particularly volatile two months for the index: the 25.5pt increase in Aug was the largest since at least 2000 when looking outside of initial pandemic re-opening, whilst the -25.5pt reversal is the largest single monthly drop since Dec’21.
  • It also continues a string of doing the opposite of what’s seen in the typically more volatile NY Fed counterpart, which has swung from +1.1 to -19.0 and most recently back to +1.9.
  • Other measures will be required to get a better sense of latest trends in manufacturing, with tomorrow’s flash S&P Global PMIs before next week’s MNI Chicago PMI.

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